Kathy Hochul: Remarks, Apr 6, 2026
Kalshi What will Kathy Hochul say during her announcement?
Markets
13 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 67%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Mayor / Mamdani | Yes | 66%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Deficit | Yes | 64%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Insurance | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Buffalo | Yes | 60%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 58%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 38%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare | No | 76%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Snow / Snowfall | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 37%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 32%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOCHULMENTION-26APR06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP