Will JD Vance say “Trade / Tariff” 2+ times?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Trade / Tariff” 2+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Aug 28, 2025.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (2+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Trade / Tariff 2+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…a job, then we are going to charge you a big fat tariff on anything you try to send back into the United States of…
…that, again, is why I go back to this -- this fundamental trade that's built into the deal. They need money to do anything. Their…
…person. He has had success in business. He's not making these stock trades himself, and your question imputes that. It doesn't say it exactly, but…
…away a major source of illegal cartel revenue, which is the cocaine trade, the fentanyl trade, other sources of illicit revenue, you actually remove the…
…with a T, in debt. Not only is the president effectively utilizing tariffs to bring in massive amounts of revenue, and there's billions of dollars…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2025 | Trade / Tariff 2+ times |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Trade / Tariff 2+ times”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Trade / Tariff” 2+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Aug 28, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Trade / Tariff 2+ times” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Trade / Tariff 2+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/tariff-or-trade-2plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=tariff%20%2F%20trade%20%282%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP