Will JD Vance say “Lebanon”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Lebanon” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 14, 2025 (50%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 press briefings we have transcripts for (Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Lebanon
- Probability
- 56% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 5 press briefings
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Yeah. So -- so, the Lebanon component, this is about regional peace, right? This is about regional peace. And what that means is we expect…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Lebanon”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Lebanon” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 14, 2025 (50%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Lebanon” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Lebanon’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/lebanon (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=lebanon · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP