Will JD Vance say “ICE / National Guard”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “ICE / National Guard” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 8, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jan 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 press briefings we have transcripts for (Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
ICE / National Guard
- Probability
- 61% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 5 press briefings
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…this is the headline. I'm just going to read it, "Outrage after ICE officer kills US citizen in Minneapolis." Well, that's one way to put…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Kalshi | Yes | 17 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “ICE / National Guard”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “ICE / National Guard” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 8, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jan 9, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “ICE / National Guard” next time?
- 61%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP