Will JD Vance say “GENIUS Act”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “GENIUS Act” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 28, 2025.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
GENIUS Act
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2025 | GENIUS Act |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “GENIUS Act”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “GENIUS Act” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 28, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “GENIUS Act” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘GENIUS Act’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/genius-act (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=genius%20act · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP