JD Vance: Keynote, May 28, 2025
Kalshi What will JD Vance say at Bitcoin2025?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during Bitcoin 2025 conference on May 28th?
Markets
35 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockchain | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bo / Hines | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Coin 25+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Coin 35+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| David Sacks | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Decentralized | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dinner | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GENIUS Act | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Red Tape | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reserve | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stablecoin | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bitcoin | Yes | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bank | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Coin 50+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| El Salvador | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ethereum | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Free speech | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fund | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Harris | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NFT | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Overreach | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ross / Ulbricht | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Saylor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SEC | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strategic Reserve | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBTCMENTIONVANCE-25MAY28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP