Will JD Vance say “Foreign”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Foreign” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 22, 2026.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Foreign
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 4 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…but I think it's just an amazing testament to what a smart foreign policy could look like and how it feeds back in to good…
Maybe foreign leaders were talking to the Iranians and encouraging them to do that. We were definitely saying to them we understand your desire not…
…world. And what has been a very effective bright spot of American foreign policy really for the last 20 or so years would disappear overnight.…
…unconstitutional law. It's not going to change anything about how we conduct foreign policy over the next couple of weeks, the next couple of months.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | Foreign |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Foreign”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Foreign” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 22, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Foreign” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Foreign’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/foreign (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=foreign · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP