Will JD Vance say “Fire/Fired”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Fire/Fired” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 1, 2024.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 debates have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Fire/Fired
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we can. If you recall, under the Biden administration, guys were getting fired because they were making their own health care decisions, and the Biden…
…of self-defense. Israel doesn't give up the right of self-defense if Hezbollah fires rockets or drones at Israel. The Iranians don't give up the right…
…now who very much wishes he was not put in the position where he had to fire a gun to defend his own life. Yeah.
…been furloughed, not laid off. So why does the president want to fire some workers and not just furlough them? Why is this shutdown any…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2024 | Fire/Fired |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Fire/Fired”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Fire/Fired” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 1, 2024.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Fire/Fired” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Fire/Fired’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/fire-or-fired (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=fire%20%2F%20fired · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP