Will JD Vance say “Radical/Extreme” 2+ times?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Radical/Extreme” 2+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Sep 15, 2025.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (2+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Radical/Extreme 2+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…they're shooting a little bit less at each other than they were before. What you've seen is radical progress in Lebanon, less shooting, less firing.
…truth, they ought to tell the truth that a group of left-wing radicals have been working tirelessly, sometimes using domestic terror techniques to try to…
…is shut down is because Chuck Schumer is listening to the far-left radicals in his own party because he is terrified of a primary challenge.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2025 | Radical/Extreme 2+ times |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Radical/Extreme 2+ times”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Radical/Extreme” 2+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Sep 15, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Radical/Extreme 2+ times” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Radical/Extreme 2+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/extreme-or-radical-2plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=extreme%20%2F%20radical%20%282%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP