Will JD Vance say “King / Dear Friend”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance did not say “King / Dear Friend” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Aug 13, 2025.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
King / Dear Friend
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…great, and I wish her all the best. She's a very, very dear friend. I haven't even talked to her, so I don't know the…
…who said something bad about Charlie Kirk. Charlie was a very, very dear friend, but more importantly than that, Charlie was a father of two…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2025 | King / Dear Friend |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “King / Dear Friend”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance did not say “King / Dear Friend” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Aug 13, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “King / Dear Friend” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘King / Dear Friend’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/dear-friend-or-king (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=dear%20friend%20%2F%20king · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP