Will JD Vance say “Cancer”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Cancer” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 29, 2026.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Cancer
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…illegal aliens, President Trump signed a powerful executive order to supercharge American AI innovation and unlock cures for pediatric cancer patients in the United States.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Cancer |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Cancer”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Cancer” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 29, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Cancer” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Cancer’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/cancer (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=cancer · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP