Will JD Vance say “Border” 20+ times?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Border” 20+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 30, 2024.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (20+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Border 20+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…because of it. We said, if you got control of the southern border, we would see a substantial reduction in the number of people who…
…the president of the United States was elected to actually enforce the border for the first time in at least four years. So, here's the…
…and beaten, and in many cases, killed over our United States southern border. You also look at the inhumane treatment at the hands of some…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2024 | Border 20+ times |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Border 20+ times”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Border” 20+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 30, 2024.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Border 20+ times” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Border 20+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/border-20plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=border%20%2820%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP