Will JD Vance say “Ass / Crazy”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Ass / Crazy” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 17, 2026.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Ass / Crazy
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we can accept the Iranians are going to shoot at ships like crazy people, and we're going to do what we have to do in…
…we'll give him (inaudible). Sorry, I can't get to everybody. Marco's right, this really is chaos. This is crazy. You guys got to behave yourself.
…seriously. What has he said about Greenland? Set to the side the crazy overreactions that I've seen from the press and from certain people in…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2026 | Ass / Crazy |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Ass / Crazy”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Ass / Crazy” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 17, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Ass / Crazy” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Ass / Crazy’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/ass-or-crazy (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=ass%20%2F%20crazy · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP