Will JD Vance say “Alien”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Alien” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 30, 2024.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Alien
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…American trucker wondering why it is that the last administration facilitated illegal aliens driving semitrucks on our roads, or if you're an American who just…
…so that people who need food benefits can get them but illegal aliens and other fraudsters don't. We have over 1,500 subpoenas that the Department…
…happen. What they have done instead is to shut down the government because we won't give billions of dollars to healthcare funding for illegal aliens.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2024 | Alien |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Alien”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Alien” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 30, 2024.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Alien” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Alien’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/alien (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=alien · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP