Will Gavin Newsom say “Pollution / Pollute”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Pollution / Pollute” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (100%), most recently on Dec 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 62% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Gavin Newsom
Pollution / Pollute
- Probability
- 62% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | Pollution / Pollute |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Pollution / Pollute | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Gavin Newsom say “Pollution / Pollute”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Pollution / Pollute” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (100%), most recently on Dec 4, 2025.
- What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Pollution / Pollute” next time?
- 62%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘Pollution / Pollute’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/pollute-or-pollution (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=pollute%20%2F%20pollution · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP