What is the probability “Race” is said on MrBeast next time?

9%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Race” be said on MrBeast next time?

Name: MrBeast: “Race” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Race” was not said on MrBeast at any of the 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 9% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 6 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 22, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

9%from settlement history only · n=8Next: Episode, Oct 24, 2026 · counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no
Streak: not said the last 8 times
Counts: named speaker only
Market: 50¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 04:22 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

MrBeast

Race

Probability: 9% · n=8
Settled: 0/8 (0%)
Last 6 episodes: said in 0 of 5 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

narratorotherMrBeast (YouTube), October 3, 2026 · Oct 3, 2026 · 37:20In transcript

…because although this was a test of endurance, this was also a race against the clock. The longer they take, the faster the calorie counter…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.