Will “Israel / Israeli” be said on The Last Word next time?

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Israel / Israeli” was said on The Last Word in 1 of 10 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 19, 2026 (10%), most recently on Apr 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.

33%from settlement history only · n=10counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 8 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=israel%20%2F%20israeli

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell

Israel / Israeli

Probability
33% · n=10
Settled
1/10 (10%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

videootherThe Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell (MS NOW), October 15, 2026 · Oct 15, 2026 · 25:00In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

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Every settled listing

newest first · 10 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Jul 30, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Jul 29, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Jul 21, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Jul 20, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Jun 18, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Jun 10, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Jun 9, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Jun 1, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo
Apr 14, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes
Mar 19, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “Israel / Israeli” said on The Last Word?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Israel / Israeli” was said on The Last Word in 1 of 10 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 19, 2026 (10%), most recently on Apr 14, 2026.
What is the probability “Israel / Israeli” is said on The Last Word next time?
33%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Israel / Israeli’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/israel-or-israeli (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=israel%20%2F%20israeli · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP