Will “ICE / National Guard” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “ICE / National Guard” was said on The Last Word in 1 of 9 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (11%), most recently on Feb 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
ICE / National Guard
- Probability
- 39% · n=9
- Settled
- 1/9 (11%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Kalshi | No |
| Feb 26, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 17, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 13, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 10, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 6, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 5, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 3, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 13, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often is “ICE / National Guard” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “ICE / National Guard” was said on The Last Word in 1 of 9 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (11%), most recently on Feb 6, 2026.
- What is the probability “ICE / National Guard” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP