Will Donald Trump say “South Africa”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “South Africa” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Nov 21, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 20¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
South Africa
- Probability
- 49% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | South Africa |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 21, 2025 | South Africa | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “South Africa”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “South Africa” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Nov 21, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “South Africa” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘South Africa’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/south-africa (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=south%20africa · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP