Will Donald Trump say “NATO” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “NATO” 3+ times at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
NATO 3+ times
- Probability
- 35% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…not nice. You know, we spend hundreds of billions a year on NATO and they said, no. But they were nice enough to give us…
…addition to America and greatly protects them. It also very much enhances NATO with who has a great leader in. Mark, I know you're in…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | NATO 3+ times |  Polymarket | No |
| Oct 17, 2025 | NATO 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NATO 3+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NATO 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “NATO 3+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “NATO” 3+ times at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 17, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “NATO 3+ times” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘NATO 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nato-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nato%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP