Will Donald Trump say “Donbas / Crimea”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Donbas / Crimea” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 28, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Donbas / Crimea
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 rallies, 3 remarks); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
families, lower taxes, less crime, a booming Georgia economy. It's going to boom like never before. With these two people, it's going to boom like…
…money in your pockets, bigger paychecks for your families, lower taxes, less crime, a booming Florida economy, and no amnesty for illegal aliens. But for…
…money in your pockets, bigger paychecks for your families, lower taxes, less crime, a booming Iowa economy, and no amnesty for your illegal aliens. You…
…money in your pockets, bigger paychecks for your families, lower taxes, less crime, a booming South Carolina economy, and no amnesty for illegal aliens. And…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | Donbas / Crimea |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Donbas / Crimea”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Donbas / Crimea” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 28, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Donbas / Crimea” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Donbas / Crimea’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/crimea-or-donba (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=crimea%20%2F%20donba · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP