Will Donald Trump say “Fire/Fired”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fire/Fired” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 15, 2024 (100%), most recently on Aug 17, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Fire/Fired
- Probability
- 48% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…stand up and tell this radical left OSF, remember the apprentice, you're fired. Get the hell out of here. So, Osaf is an open and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2024 | Fire/Fired |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Aug 15, 2024 | Fire/Fired | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Fire/Fired”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fire/Fired” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 15, 2024 (100%), most recently on Aug 17, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fire/Fired” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fire/Fired’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fire-or-fired (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fire%20%2F%20fired · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP