Will Donald Trump say “Illegal Immigration” 3+ times?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Illegal Immigration” 3+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Aug 17, 2024.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Illegal Immigration 3+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…looking at some of these guys, these thugs. They're not students. It's illegal immigration is what it is. It's people coming into a country that…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2024 | Illegal Immigration 3+ times |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Illegal Immigration 3+ times”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Illegal Immigration” 3+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Aug 17, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Illegal Immigration 3+ times” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Illegal Immigration 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/illegal-immigration-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=illegal%20immigration%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP