Will Donald Trump say “Abraham / Kazakhstan”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Abraham / Kazakhstan” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Nov 6, 2025.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Abraham / Kazakhstan
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 1 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Trump nearly triples up on this. Reagan at just 18%. And then Abraham Lincoln who by most historic accounts is the greatest president of all…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…Trump nearly triples up on this. Reagan at just 18% and then Abraham Lincoln who by most historic accounts is the greatest president of all…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…things that we have to go through, Tim? I don't think so. Abraham Lincoln, I met a young man from Israel. I said, "Who's your…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | Abraham / Kazakhstan |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Abraham / Kazakhstan”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Abraham / Kazakhstan” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Nov 6, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Abraham / Kazakhstan” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Abraham / Kazakhstan’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/abraham-or-kazakhstan (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=abraham%20%2F%20kazakhstan · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP