# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · rally 2024-09-12 · 16 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally · as_of 2026-10-27T16:18:25Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2024-09-12 · tn/th blank: no rally transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally (every P row; the listed term = w): This is a market group over what Donald Trump will say during his rally in Tucson, Arizona, scheduled for September 12, 2024, 2 PM ET.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Tampon	tampon	1	10	8	0.8	YYYnYYYYYn	0.72	hist	no
Abortion	abortion	1	5	4	0.8	YnYYY	0.64	hist	yes
China 5+ times	china#5	5	1	1	1	Y	0.61	hist	no
Comrade Kamala 3+ times	comrade kamala#3	3	6	3	0.5	nYnYnY	0.59	hist	yes
Cat	cat	1	1	1	1	Y	0.57	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	1	1	1	1	Y	0.57	hist	no
Springfield	springfield	1	1	1	1	Y	0.57	hist	yes
Border 15+ times	border#15	15	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.52	hist	yes
Rig/Rigged	rig|rigged	1	0	0			0.51	hist	yes
MAGA 4+ times	maga#4	4	1	0	0	n	0.43	hist	no
Crypto/Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	6	0	0	nnnnnn	0.28	hist	no
Abdul	abdul	1	0	0			0.52	prior	no
Dog	dog	1	0	0			0.52	prior	yes
Fact Check	fact check	1	0	0			0.52	prior	no
Moderator	moderator	1	0	0			0.52	prior	no
Veto	veto	1	0	0			0.52	prior	no