Will Donald Trump say “Israel / Iran”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Israel / Iran” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (4 rallies, 3 remarks, 1 speech; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Israel / Iran
- Probability
- 39% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (4 rallies, 3 remarks, 1 speech); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…if you'd like proof of that, just ask Venezuela or just ask Iran. You know, Iran had 159 ships. Now they're all at the bottom…
…doing very well. You have no idea how well we're doing with Iran. Iran is finished. Iran is finished. But think of it. But I…
…used the name Elan Omar, but rather it's an entirely different name. Iran Nur say Almi slightly different than Ilan that's and I don't know…
…been pretty happy with Russia, that they have not gotten involved with Iran. We've -- we've taken Iran down to levels that they've never seen…
…Texas, Louisiana, all parts of our country. Millions and millions of barrels of oil. I terminated Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal,
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2025 | Israel / Iran |  Polymarket | No |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Israel / Iran | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Israel / Iran”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Israel / Iran” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 4, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Israel / Iran” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Israel / Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/iran-or-israel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=iran%20%2F%20israel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP