Will “Christmas” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Christmas” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (100%), most recently on Dec 24, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

49%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 4 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

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Prime Minister's Questions

Christmas

Probability
49% · n=4
Settled
4/4 (100%)
Last 8 PMQs
said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Jen Craft (Thurrock) (Lab)otherPrime Minister's Questions, 14 October 2026 · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…always stay away from school events, missing everything from parents’ evenings to Christmas plays and phonics workshops. Yet Catalyst Academies Trust, which runs the school,…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Andy BurnhamspeakerPrime Minister's Questions, 9 September 2026 · Sep 9, 2026In transcript

…the specifics in her constituency. This will all be considered as part of a mental health strategy that will come before this House before Christmas.

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

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What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · not listed

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What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

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What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

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What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · not listed

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What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

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What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · not listed

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What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · not listed

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What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

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What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 4 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Dec 24, 2025ChristmasPolymarketYes–
Dec 18, 2025ChristmasKalshiYes9
Dec 17, 2025ChristmasPolymarketYes–
Dec 10, 2025ChristmasPolymarketYes–

Questions

How often is “Christmas” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Christmas” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (100%), most recently on Dec 24, 2025.
What is the probability “Christmas” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
49%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Christmas’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/christma (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=christma · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP