Prime Minister's Questions, Nov 19, 2025
Polymarket What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Markets
18 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Access | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cut | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Emergency | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Government 8+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Northern Ireland | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reform | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Scotland | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wales | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Working People | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Friend 8+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gentleman / Lady 6+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mr. Speaker 30+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pension | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| UK / United Kingdom | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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