Lemonade Stand: Episode, May 20, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (May 20)
Markets
25 words · 13 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crazy | Yes | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Patreon | Yes | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Actually | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Honestly | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Right | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Table | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Apple | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Left | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Market | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New York | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Housing | No | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Basketball | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Child | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Korea / Korean | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Magic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Monogamy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Arbitrage | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Jurisprudence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Amortization | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Collateral | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Federal Reserve | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fiduciary | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-lemonade-stand-podcast-may-20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP