Lemonade Stand: Episode, Jun 24, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (June 24)
Markets
18 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crazy | Yes | 75%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Actually | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Honestly | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| New York | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| India / Indian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Korea / Korean | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | No | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Apple | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Housing | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mountain | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vehicle / Car | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Red | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Arbitrage | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Collateral | No | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Federal Reserve | No | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-lemonade-stand-podcast-june-24-20260619140929281 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP