# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-07-30 · 17 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL30 · as_of 2026-10-24T11:03:39Z
# scope K host_or_reporter · n/y settled before 2026-07-30 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL30 ({word} = w of K rows): If any host or reporter says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	16	12	0.75	nYYYYYYnYY	0.65	hist	yes
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	14	11	0.79	YnYYYYYYnY	0.64	hist	yes
Midterm	midterm	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.43	hist	no
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	5	2	0.4	nnnYY	0.43	hist	yes
Blanche	blanche	1	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.39	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	1	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	yes
ICE	ice	1	10	4	0.4	YYYYnnnnnn	0.35	hist	no
NATO	nato	1	4	0	0	nnnn	0.27	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	10	1	0.1	nnnnnYnnnn	0.23	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	1	6	0	0	nnnnnn	0.21	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	13	1	0.08	nnnnnnnnnn	0.18	hist	no
Cornyn	cornyn	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes
Diddy	diddy	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Egypt	egypt	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
FIFA	fifa	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Leopold / Aschenbrenner	aschenbrenner|leopold	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Lifeguard	lifeguard	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes