Will “Leopold / Aschenbrenner” be said on World News Tonight next time?
As of Oct 28, 2026, “Leopold / Aschenbrenner” was not said on World News Tonight in any of the 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 15, 2026 – Oct 27, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- any host or reporter
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
ABC World News Tonight
Leopold / Aschenbrenner
- Probability
- 37% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: any host or reporter
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leopold / Aschenbrenner |  Kalshi | No |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Leopold / Aschenbrenner | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often is “Leopold / Aschenbrenner” said on World News Tonight?
- As of Oct 28, 2026, “Leopold / Aschenbrenner” was not said on World News Tonight in any of the 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 30, 2026.
- What is the probability “Leopold / Aschenbrenner” is said on World News Tonight next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.
Cite parrot.markets, “World News Tonight: ‘Leopold / Aschenbrenner’ mention history”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight/words/aschenbrenner-or-leopold (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=world-news-tonight&word=aschenbrenner%20%2F%20leopold · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=world-news-tonight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP