What is the probability “Wildfire” is said on World News Tonight next time?

37%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Wildfire” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Wildfire” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Wildfire” was said on World News Tonight in 1 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 10, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jul 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 1.

37%from settlement history only · n=3counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 22:20 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Wildfire

Probability: 37% · n=3
Settled: 1/3 (33%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 16, 2026 · Oct 16, 2026 · 2:49In transcript

…us here on a very busy Friday night. The emergency right now. Wildfires burning homes. Also the severe thunderstorm watch for New York City right…