# JD Vance (jd-vance) · remarks 2026-05-15 · 14 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAY15 · as_of 2026-10-24T14:25:05Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-15 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAY15 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fraternal Order of Police's National Peace Officers' Memorial Service at the Capitol , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	17	13	0.76	nYYYnYYYYY	2	2	0.66	hist	no
American Dream	american dream	1	19	15	0.79	YYYYYnYYYn	2	0	0.62	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	33	25	0.76	YYnnnYYYYY	2	2	0.62	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	17	11	0.65	nYnYnnYYYY	2	1	0.6	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	1	22	16	0.73	YYnYnnYnYY	2	2	0.59	hist	yes
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	1	1	1	Y	2	0	0.52	hist	yes
Border	border	1	10	5	0.5	nYnYYYYnnn	2	1	0.46	hist	yes
Immigrant / Immigration	immigrant|immigration	1	4	2	0.5	YYnn	2	2	0.44	hist	no
Terrorism / Terrorist	terrorism|terrorist	1	15	6	0.4	YnnYnYYnnn	2	1	0.35	hist	no
Drug	drug	1	3	0	0	nnn	2	1	0.27	hist	no
Common Sense	common sense	1	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	no
Defund / Defunded / Defunding	defund|defunded|defunding	1	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	no
Hero / Heroic	hero|heroic	1	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	yes
Safe / Safer / Safety	safe|safer|safety	1	0	0			2	1	0.41	prior	yes