# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-09-22 · 25 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP22 · as_of 2026-10-25T02:01:18Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-09-22 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP22 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of Announcement on Significant Medical and Scientific Findings for America's Children on September 22nd, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	54	44	0.81	nYYYYYnYYY	0.84	hist	yes
China	china	35	30	0.86	YYYnnYYYYY	0.73	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	8	5	0.62	YYnYYYnn	0.57	hist	no
TikTok	tiktok	14	5	0.36	nnnnnnnYYn	0.52	hist	no
Republican	republican	2	2	1	YY	0.5	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	6	3	0.5	nYnYYn	0.49	hist	yes
Vaccine	vaccine	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.44	hist	yes
Prescription	prescription	1	1	1	Y	0.41	hist	no
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	0	0			0.41	hist	no
FDA / Food and Drug Administration	fda|food and drug administration	0	0			0.41	hist	yes
Covid	covid	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.39	hist	no
Charlie / Kirk	charlie|kirk	2	1	0.5	nY	0.37	hist	no
Autism	autism	0	0			0.37	hist	yes
CDC / Centers for Disease Control	cdc|centers for disease control	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	no
MAHA / Make America Healthy Again	maha|make america healthy again	1	0	0	n	0.34	hist	no
Pharmaceutical	pharmaceutical	5	2	0.4	nYYnn	0.32	hist	no
Diet / Nutrition	diet|nutrition	0	0			0.39	prior	no
Fitness / Exercise	exercise|fitness	0	0			0.39	prior	no
Lobby / Lobbyist	lobby|lobbyist	0	0			0.39	prior	yes
NIH / National Institutes of Health	national institutes of health|nih	0	0			0.39	prior	yes
Over the Counter	over the counter	0	0			0.39	prior	no
Painkiller	painkiller	0	0			0.39	prior	no
Pregnant / Pregnancy	pregnancy|pregnant	0	0			0.39	prior	yes
Tylenol	tylenol	0	0			0.39	prior	yes
Warp Speed	warp speed	0	0			0.39	prior	yes