# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2025-10-16 · 19 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25OCT16 · as_of 2026-10-26T03:58:27Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2025-10-16 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25OCT16 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 49 Episode 4, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Fire	fire	1	1	1	Y	0.46	hist	yes
Flint	flint	1	1	1	Y	0.46	hist	yes
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	1	1	1	Y	0.46	hist	no
Puzzle	puzzle	1	1	1	Y	0.46	hist	no
Reward	reward	1	1	1	Y	0.46	hist	yes
Risk	risk	2	1	0.5	nY	0.39	hist	no
Blindside / Blind Side	blind side|blindside	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.35	hist	no
Trust	trust	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.35	hist	yes
Hungry / Hunger	hunger|hungry	1	0	0	n	0.24	hist	no
Storm	storm	1	0	0	n	0.24	hist	no
Alliance	alliance	2	0	0	nn	0.2	hist	yes
Bromance	bromance	2	0	0	nn	0.2	hist	no
Fake	fake	2	0	0	nn	0.2	hist	yes
Quit	quit	2	0	0	nn	0.2	hist	no
Target	target	2	0	0	nn	0.2	hist	no
Unfair	unfair	2	0	0	nn	0.2	hist	no
Weak	weak	2	0	0	nn	0.2	hist	no
Key	key	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Snake	snake	0	0			0.3	prior	no