Will “Immigrant / Immigration” be said at the next Political debates?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Immigrant / Immigration” was said at the Political debates on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 1, 2026 (75%), most recently on Jun 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 67% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- any candidate
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Political debates
Immigrant / Immigration
- Probability
- 67% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
Next listing counts: any candidate
We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often is “Immigrant / Immigration” said at the Political debates?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Immigrant / Immigration” was said at the Political debates on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 1, 2026 (75%), most recently on Jun 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Immigrant / Immigration” is said at the Political debates next time?
- 67%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any candidate.
Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Immigrant / Immigration’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/immigrant-or-immigration (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=immigrant%20%2F%20immigration · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP