# Political debates (political-debates) · debate 2026-04-21 · 15 words · K k:KXNYCMAYORDEBATEMENTION-26APR21 · as_of 2026-10-24T20:49:06Z
# scope K any_candidate · n/y settled before 2026-04-21 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNYCMAYORDEBATEMENTION-26APR21 ({word} = w of K rows): If any participating candidate says {word} as part of South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debate , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Iran	iran	1	2	2	1	YY	0.72	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	2	2	1	YY	0.72	hist	no
Healthcare	healthcare	1	4	3	0.75	YYYn	0.63	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	1	4	3	0.75	YYYn	0.63	hist	no
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	1	4	3	0.75	YYnY	0.62	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	11	5	0.45	nYnnYYnnYY	0.55	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	0	0			0.47	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.46	hist	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	no
Immigrant / Immigration	immigrant|immigration	1	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	yes
Rural	rural	1	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	no
Epstein	epstein	1	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.41	hist	no
Chicken	chicken	1	0	0			0.57	prior	no
Gambling / Casino	casino|gambling	1	0	0			0.57	prior	no
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	0	0			0.57	prior	yes