What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Drug / Addiction” next time?

42%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Drug / Addiction”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Drug / Addiction” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 27, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Drug / Addiction” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 8, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

42%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 27, 2026, 12:27 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Drug / Addiction

Probability: 42% · n=3
Settled: 1/3 (33%)
Last 8 press conferences: said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Walter J. McNeil, President, Edenwald Houses Tenant AssociationotherMayor Mamdani Re-Opens Edenwald’s Community, Senior and Child Care Centers · Oct 23, 2026In transcript

…tenant patrol, that would sit in the hallways when we had our drug epidemic. Are you here, ladies? And there was a lot of people…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.