Zohran Mamdani: Press conference, Jul 8, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his Transportation Announcement?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 54%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Bus Lane | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | 43%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Bike | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Commute / Commuter | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | Yes | 32%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Free Bus / Fast & Free | Yes | 32%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Insurance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Childcare | No | 44%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 35%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 34%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 32%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Grocery | No | 31%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 11%n=52 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26JUL08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP