What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Commute / Commuter” next time?

51%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Commute / Commuter”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Commute / Commuter” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Commute / Commuter” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 16, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

51%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 21:50 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Commute / Commuter

Probability: 51% · n=2
Settled: 1/2 (50%)
Last 8 press conferences: said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Comptroller LevineotherMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…far away as Pennsylvania and returning here to work sometimes with two-hour commutes. Yes, housing is driving that, but number two is childcare. We must…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.