What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Task Force” next time?

29%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Task Force”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Task Force” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Task Force” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 5, 2026 (20%), most recently on Jan 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

29%from settlement history only · n=5counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no
Streak: not said the last 4 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 12:14 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Task Force

Probability: 29% · n=5
Settled: 1/5 (20%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Deputy Mayor FrancoisotherMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…many of you know helped pioneer this movement through the Gun Violence Task Force during his time in the City Council and has remained a…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.