What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Emergency” next time?

63%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Emergency”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Emergency” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Emergency” at 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 25, 2026 (100%), most recently on Feb 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 63% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

63%from settlement history only · n=5counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 5/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes
Streak: said the last 5 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 17:25 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Emergency

Probability: 63% · n=5
Settled: 5/5 (100%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…so that it can be a fully functioning part of our city's response to mental health emergencies. Commissioner, is there anything you'd want to add?

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Delivers Remarks at NYPD Memorial Wall With Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch · Oct 13, 2026In transcript

…and then as a member of this department in Midtown South, the Emergency Service Unit and the Bomb Squad. Today, his son carries both his…