Zohran Mamdani: Remarks, Aug 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his announcement?
Markets
16 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Five Borough | Yes | 70%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 67%n=109 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 62%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | 47%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Governor / Hochul | Yes | 44%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 32%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Grocery | Yes | 20%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Heat / Weather | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanctuary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Childcare | No | 35%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | No | 34%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Free Bus / Fast & Free | No | 24%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 13%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 5%n=68 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26AUG12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP