Will Zohran Mamdani say “Heat / Weather”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Heat / Weather” at 2 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 8, 2026 (14%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 19% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Zohran Mamdani
Heat / Weather
- Probability
- 19% · n=14
- Settled
- 2/14 (14%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…covered in black mold, living rooms with broken floorboards and bedrooms without heat even in the dead of winter. Suffering replaced stability. For too many…
…Homes with upgraded bathrooms and kitchens, new flooring and paint jobs, and homes with reliable heat in the winter and air conditioning in the summer.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Heat / Weather |  Polymarket | No | 2 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Heat / Weather | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Heat / Weather | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Heat / Weather | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Heat / Weather | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Heat / Weather | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Heat / Weather | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Heat / Weather | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Heat / Weather | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Heat / Weather | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Heat / Weather |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Heat / Weather | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Heat / Weather | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Heat / Weather | Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
Questions
- How often does Zohran Mamdani say “Heat / Weather”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Heat / Weather” at 2 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 8, 2026 (14%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Heat / Weather” next time?
- 19%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Zohran Mamdani: ‘Heat / Weather’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/zohran-mamdani/words/heat-or-weather (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=heat%20%2F%20weather · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP