Will “ICE / Border” be said on The Last Word next time?

As of Oct 25, 2026, “ICE / Border” was said on The Last Word in 3 of 6 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 11, 2026 (50%), most recently on Mar 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

39%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=border%20%2F%20ice

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell

ICE / Border

Probability
39% · n=6
Settled
3/6 (50%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

narratorotherThe Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell (MS NOW), October 22, 2026 · Oct 22, 2026 · 25:01In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

adotherThe Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell (MS NOW), October 21, 2026 · Oct 21, 2026 · 20:10In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

AdvertisementotherThe Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell (MS NOW), October 5, 2026 · Oct 5, 2026 · 34:24In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Raphael Warnock say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Cory Booker say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Sherrod Brown say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 6 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Jun 9, 2026ICE / BorderKalshiNo
Jun 5, 2026ICE / BorderKalshiNo
Mar 5, 2026ICE / BorderKalshiYes
Feb 27, 2026ICE / BorderKalshiYes
Feb 24, 2026ICE / BorderKalshiYes
Feb 11, 2026ICE / BorderKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “ICE / Border” said on The Last Word?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “ICE / Border” was said on The Last Word in 3 of 6 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 11, 2026 (50%), most recently on Mar 5, 2026.
What is the probability “ICE / Border” is said on The Last Word next time?
39%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘ICE / Border’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/border-or-ice (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=border%20%2F%20ice · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP