Will “Election Denier / Election Denial” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Election Denier / Election Denial” was not said on The Last Word in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 16, 2026.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
Election Denier / Election Denial
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Election Denier / Election Denial |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often is “Election Denier / Election Denial” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Election Denier / Election Denial” was not said on The Last Word in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Election Denier / Election Denial” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Election Denier / Election Denial’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/election-denial-or-election-denier (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=election%20denial%20%2F%20election%20denier · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP