# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · hearing 2026-07-21 · 15 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26JUL21 · as_of 2026-10-25T06:05:05Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-07-21 · tn/th blank: no hearing transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26JUL21 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of Senate Committee on Appropriations - A Review of the President's Supplemental Funding Request of June 24, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Nuclear	nuclear	1	13	12	0.92	YYYYYYYYYY	0.73	hist	yes
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	4	4	1	YYYY	0.7	hist	yes
Venezuela	venezuela	1	3	3	1	YYY	0.66	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	13	12	0.92	YYYYYYYYnY	0.66	hist	no
Epic Fury	epic fury	1	2	2	1	YY	0.63	hist	no
Ukraine	ukraine	1	5	3	0.6	nYYYn	0.57	hist	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	12	8	0.67	YnYnYYYnYY	0.56	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	1	1	1	Y	0.54	hist	yes
Golden Dome	golden dome	1	4	3	0.75	YYYn	0.53	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	15	10	0.67	YYYYYnYYnn	0.53	hist	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.46	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	13	7	0.54	YYYYnnnYnY	0.43	hist	yes
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	5	2	0.4	YnnYn	0.37	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	0	0			0.45	prior	yes