Kash Patel: Hearing, Sep 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Kash Patel say during the Senate FBI hearing?
Markets
17 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fentanyl | Yes | 64%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 64%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Weaponization / Weaponized | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Surveillance | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Whistleblower | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 2020 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Atlantic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26SEP15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP