What is the probability JD Vance says “Reserve” next time?

53%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will JD Vance say “Reserve”?

Name: JD Vance: “Reserve” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Reserve” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 28, 2025.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 15:01 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Reserve

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 5 transcripts: said in 1 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 2:05In transcript

…we had for a very long time, the Biden administration, draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve purely for the purpose of lowering gas and oil costs.

QreporterPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt Briefs Members of the Media, Oct. 1, 2025 · Oct 1, 2025 · 31:07In transcript

…today that she's going to be allowed to stay at the Federal Reserve Board until oral arguments in January. Does the president have any personal…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
May 28, 2025	Reserve	Polymarket	Yes

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Reserve”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Reserve” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 28, 2025.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Reserve” next time?: 53%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Reserve’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/reserve (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=reserve · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP